Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Big mistake, Again!!!

29th June, I did a big mistake again by not exit position (cut loss) where there was open gap down in morning and afternoon session. And today, crude oil and soybean as well as DJIA has been fallen down so huge. I'm not sure what i'm going to do tomorrow. Exit position with losing almost rm 1000 and enter a new short position? i'm not sure though. but if price is gape down, sure i'll enter short position.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Post Analysis 24-25th June 2010

On 24th June i closed long position at 2390 since i couldn't see an attempt to breakout 2 days high (2393), and there's a doji on 15 minutes and 5 minutes chart.


On the same day i also enter short position at 2389 because of the above mentioned reason.
On 25th June i closed at 2382 since that's where almost support has been there for about 3 days. what a boring cpo market last week.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Trading Plan for 23rd June 2010

Pivot Point :
2329 ~ 2357 - 2395 ~ 2413
If market open gap (down), lets CPO move 3~5 point higher than open price.
Use MACD to identify the trend.
Use CCI to see price divergence, wait until there is significant divergence.
Ensure the position follows trend.

Cut Loss point:
If i go for long, cut lost should be at 2360
If i go for short, cut lost should be at 2420.

Port mortem trade - 22nd June 2010

Today in summary i lost 5 point + 2 points for FBR commission. 

Yesterday trade was success but not for today. The lesson learn for today, control the emotion and wait for the confirmation candle before enter position. Today mistake can be describe as follows:

1. Trend was bearish but for some how i still want to play swing. I should have find a point to short (for example in next rallies).
2. Wrongly identified price divergence, need to improve more on this.

but for today i follow the trading plan which is set the cut loss point...yippie..

Thus, for the next trade i need to use default MACD to identify underlying trend and find position to take advantage of the trend.




Sunday, June 13, 2010

Things to learn

This while i was reading one the cpo market commentary from one blog - futures market commentary actually , i have encountered some points of idea i could not understand from the blog. That shows i still need to learn a lot of things about fcpo market and i think it can also apply to other market in general as long as it involves trading.

Below is the interesting point and the things i need to get what is the author of the blog try to convey:

"Traders may go Short if the market does rallies or gap up slightly without breaching the 2nd resistance level and retrace about 10 points from there (enter only if the market show signs of weakness from the rallies), your stop should few points above that resistance level as well."

The one highlight in RED is what i need to learn.

What does it mean by rectrace 10 points means? and 
How to identify signs of weakness from the rallies?
Answer (Updated):

1. part of it by looking at bearish divergence (CCI), flat MACD, and low volume.
2. candle formations, or resistance level based on pivot point, R1 / R2
 

Any one is welcome to help me and comment.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Post Analysis 11th June 2010

I still hold short position @2407 since the post is sync with trend line, i have decided not to close the position though i know i can get 50 points advantage. I'm waiting for two days more before i close FCPO august, perhaps next close give me break even for equity,

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Short @2407

Today i have got a short post @2407, what decides me to take short position at 2407. Hmm, actually when i was attending a training today, i observed 15 minutes chart time frame at it was 2426 and i feel confidence it is a good point to take short position. It was based on what I had seen not what I had believed. Unfortunately, i failed to submit post around 2420~2426.

When the training finished at 430 i open TC Pro, the trading tools i use for FCPO and it is already around 2401~2408. I studied the chart pattern or somebody called technical analysis to get hints was there a good point range to take a new post?

Perhaps the chart below can help me to explain why?
Now let see the chart for today. It is 15 mins chart. The trendline and the tunnel has been bearish. There was a DOJI candle at 2420-2426 and the CCI showed price divergence towards bearish. So this is the best point to short. Meanwhile i took position at 2407 when the prices seemed not able to break resistance trend line (in CCI). unfortunately it broke the resistance trend line :( hmm... I also decided to take short position since daily CCI have not surpassed CCI -200 yet for today. So what would i do next, since i have take a short position and in trading plan i have said i want to practice cut loss and set profit taking level. So tomorrow i will submit stop loss at @2442 and profit taking level at @2397 before CCI touch -200.
Daily



15 min charts 

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Trading Plan

Here is my trading plan.

Overnight Trade:
1. Identify trend line.
2. Check CCI to identify if market has been oversold or overbought before take position. Make sure each position follows the trend line. 
3. If boat is missed, wait for another rally or correction.
 3. Set cut lost 
- short trend, previous high (lower high) + 5 points.
- long trend, previous low (higher low) - 5 points.
4. Money Management
- set cut lost to 10% equity and comply with 3. 

Intraday Trade:
1. Look for at least 5 candles (15 minutes time frame) to identify support & resistance.
2. Check CCI before enter position and check support and resistance identify in 1. Check pivot point to.
3. If choose to enter position that does not follow trendline, set take profit maximum 8 points and cut loss at next support / resistant.


Close Position with profit :D


Finally after more than 3 weeks, i closed my fcpo august position today and took 10 points profit. Fortunately i did not cut loss position when market is against with my position. now i have learn a lot where to set cut loss (the most important part), where to enter position and how to manage the emotion when trading.

Trading is about a game plan, again if i failed to plan then i plan to fail.




Monday, June 7, 2010

Risk & Rewards Plan for 8th June 2010

SEE: Fcpo august chart pattern looks more on bearish sentiment though it is better seen as neutral market.Volume for 7th June was average. if FCPO tomorrow is a black candle beneath the trend line with higher volume i advise my self to take short position with other T.A analysis as confirmation.

POSITION: need to close current position. but for offline trading i'll enter on the following position based on where market will be opening.

2440~2455~2465

RISKS:
@2505
Previous high is at 2500

REWARDS:
@20 points from enter position

Volume does matter

while I was looking at chart pattern today, it asked my self if volume does matter?

From my observation volume is of the important aspect to identify reversal pattern. It is best if we can identify reversal pattern as early as possible especially in two ways market like fcpo.

When volume has significant increase for couple of days. Be wary on the chart pattern. When volume is higher with BLACK candle it is a sign of bearish market. Wait for 2-3 days and short when a candle is below trend line.

During bearish market, if there is very high volume with WHITE candle please be wary and please enter long position once BULLISH candle is above trend line.

Please use other indicator as well before enter position just ensure we are not get trap or long/short at oversold/overbought points.



Sunday, June 6, 2010

Risk & Rewards Plan for 7th June 2010

SEE: market is still in sideway trends with few daily candlesticks above trend line. However i still does not show as a reversal pattern from bearish to bullish.

POSITION: will not enter the market unless i have enough time for short term trading.
RISKS:
@2505
Previous high is at 2500

REWARDS:
@2436

Since FCPO still in sideways mode, there are few previous low points (SUPPORT) to be considered as a rewards. I set rewards to be @2436 as my trading plan.

Basic Trading Rules

Trade what u SEE not what u want to BELIEVE.
Identify POSITION, STOP LIMIT and PROFIT level you before trade
after enter the position, PLACE STOP LIMIT and PROFIT LEVEL
If stop limit is triggered, TAKE A BREAK and take it with pride.
REPEAT the trading rules once STOP LIMIT and PROFIT LEVEL are filled.
To be a successful trader, u must OBEY the trading plan and control the EMOTION.
Cut your LOSSES short
Lets your PROFIT run
Add only to WINNERS
Never add to LOSERS

this trading rules will be my guideline for my own FCPO pre - analysis and post - analysis.

no1: cut your losses short
no2. lets your profit run
no3. add only to winners
no4. never add to losers.(or avg down)

Learn from o-tai

Today i have met an experience fcpo trader or better i called him an experience FBR.
i have learnt a lot from him and i'm glad he has shared his trading strategy. the most valuable things i have learnt today as a fcpo trader, u need to have trading plan, i repeat again U NEED TRADING PLAN!!! without a plan u plan to failed though i always tell this advice to my younger brother and sister but i have forgotten that i also need it for fcpo trading.

I'm going to setup my trading plan A.S.A.P.